Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 4/25/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on April 25, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings. The Rockies sit at a dismal 4-20 this season, while the Reds are slightly better at 12-13. This matchup marks the first game of their series, and the Rockies are hoping to turn around their rough start.

In their last game, the Rockies faced a tough opponent and suffered another loss, continuing their struggles. Meanwhile, the Reds have shown signs of life, with their offense ranking 12th in MLB, compared to the Rockies’ 28th. The Reds’ strength lies in their batting, as they rank 10th in home runs and 8th in stolen bases, which should pose a challenge for Rockies starter Kyle Freeland.

Freeland, projected to start for Colorado, has had a rough year with an 0-4 record and a below-average ERA of 4.85. However, his 3.03 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. He projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings but is expected to allow 3.0 earned runs, making it crucial for the Rockies’ offense to provide support.

On the other hand, Reds starter Andrew Abbott has been impressive, boasting a 2-0 record with an excellent ERA of 1.64. Abbott’s high strikeout rate of 40.0% could exploit the Rockies’ tendency to strike out, as they lead MLB in that category.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close matchup, with the Rockies’ moneyline at +115 and the Reds at -135. The projections suggest a slight edge for the Reds, but given the Rockies' home-field advantage and the potential for Freeland to bounce back, this game remains intriguing for bettors.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andrew Abbott has gone to his secondary offerings 6.4% more often this season (52.9%) than he did last season (46.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Santiago Espinal has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 12.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 5.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Cincinnati Reds will tally 5.23 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland's 91.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 17th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Farmer has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Hunter Goodman (the Rockies's expected catcher today) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Austin Hays has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.20 Units / 70% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 5.23, Colorado Rockies 4.67

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

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