Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Picks 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jakob Junis - Reds
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

In an intriguing interleague matchup, the Cleveland Guardians host the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field on September 24, 2024. The Guardians, boasting a solid 90-67 record, are having a commendable season and are still in the hunt for postseason positions. Meanwhile, the Reds' 76-81 record reflects a below-average season, leaving them striving to finish the season on a high note.

The Guardians are betting favorites with a -160 moneyline, indicating a 60% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Cleveland an even stronger edge with a 64% win probability projection. Tanner Bibee is set to take the mound for the Guardians. Ranked as the 43rd best starting pitcher in the league, Bibee's 3.56 ERA and 11-8 record this season highlight his effectiveness. Despite projecting an average of 5.3 innings today, he is expected to allow only 2.2 earned runs while striking out 5.7 batters.

The Reds counter with Jakob Junis, who, despite a sparkling 2.61 ERA in his appearances this year, has been flagged by advanced metrics for potential regression. With an xFIP of 3.89, the gap suggests he might not maintain his ERA form. Set to pitch 4.9 innings, Junis must overcome a projection of 2.9 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, Cleveland's lineup ranks 17th, with notable prowess in stolen bases at 5th, while the Reds hold the 16th spot overall, excel at base running with a 2nd place in stolen bases. However, both teams lag in batting average, sitting at 20th for Cleveland and 26th for Cincinnati.

With the Guardians carrying a high implied team total of 4.42 compared to the Reds' 3.58, the matchup leans in Cleveland's favor. As the first game of the series, this contest sets the tone for both teams in their respective late-season quests.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Jakob Junis has averaged 59 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 1st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake Fraley's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 83.8-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 73.8-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With a 0.34 difference between Tanner Bibee's 9.72 K/9 and his 9.38 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to negatively regress going forward.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Josh Naylor has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 30.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 24.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 137 games (+11.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+21.40 Units / 119% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.22 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.16

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