Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 6/9/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians on June 9, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective seasons. The Guardians currently sit at 34-30, showcasing an above-average performance, while the Reds hold a record of 33-33, indicating an average season thus far. This matchup marks the first game in their series, adding an extra layer of excitement.

Cleveland's Luis Ortiz is projected to take the mound, aiming to improve his lackluster 3-6 record this season. Despite being ranked as the 95th best starting pitcher in MLB, Ortiz's 4.02 ERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 4.71 xERA. He is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.0 hits and 2.1 walks per game could be concerning. In contrast, Wade Miley of the Reds, who has struggled significantly, has yet to start a game this season and holds an alarming 18.00 ERA. However, his projections indicate a potential for improvement, as his 5.23 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 24th in MLB, which is below average, while the Reds are slightly better at 12th. With a current moneyline of -170 favoring the Guardians, they carry an implied team total of 4.75 runs, reflecting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Miley's struggles. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Wade Miley has compiled a 4.2% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, placing in the 3rd percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Typically, batters like Elly De La Cruz who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Luis Ortiz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Luis L. Ortiz has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 3.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Angel Martinez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.4, Cleveland Guardians 4.75

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Wade Miley - Reds
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians

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