Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 6/11/2025

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the Cincinnati Reds on June 11, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are currently hovering around .500, with the Guardians sitting at 34-32, while the Reds are just a game better at 35-33. This series marks the third installment between these two teams, with the results thus far potentially weighing on the Guardians as they look to gain an edge at home.

As the Guardians prepare to face off against the Reds, they will need to overcome the challenges posed by the Reds' offense, which ranks 10th in MLB—a stark contrast to Cleveland's 23rd ranking. The Guardians have struggled to produce runs consistently, and this matchup could highlight their offensive deficiencies.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start Logan Allen, who has had a mixed season thus far with a 3-4 record and a 4.42 ERA. His peripherals suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his 5.08 xFIP indicates potential struggles ahead. Allen's low strikeout rate (16.1 K%) will be tested against a Reds lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts, potentially playing into his favor if he can exploit their weaknesses.

The Reds will counter with Nick Lodolo, who has been solid this season with a 4-4 record and a stellar 3.21 ERA. Lodolo's 3.90 xFIP suggests he could face challenges as well, but he brings a higher upside to this matchup, especially considering his above-average status in Power Rankings at 87th.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets reflect a close contest, with both teams currently listed at -110 moneylines. The projections suggest a slight edge for the Guardians, who could benefit from playing at home. However, the Reds' offensive prowess and Lodolo's strong performance may tilt the scales in their favor, making this a game to watch closely.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo has tallied 17.5 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme groundball hitters like Elly De La Cruz tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Allen.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Reds's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.2% compared to 51.7% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Lane Thomas has struggled with his Barrel%; his 7.4% rate last season has dropped off to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 35% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.83, Cleveland Guardians 4.35

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

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