Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 6/10/2025

On June 10, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field in what is shaping up to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Guardians, sitting at 34-31, are performing above average this season, while the Reds hold a record of 34-33, indicating an average campaign. The last time these teams met, the Reds won 7-4, extending their current winning streak to four games in a row.

Cleveland's Slade Cecconi is projected to take the mound, aiming to improve upon his 1-2 record and 4.87 ERA this season. Despite being ranked as the 194th best starter in MLB, advanced metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.34 xFIP hinting at possible improvement. Cecconi's projections indicate he will pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs. However, his propensity to give up 5.2 hits and 1.2 walks per outing could put him in a tough spot against the Reds' offense.

On the other side, Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott, who boasts an impressive 5-1 record and a stellar 2.18 ERA, will be looking to maintain his excellent form. Although his 3.92 xFIP indicates he may regress, Abbott's projections aren’t too far from his current performance, and he should be able to handle a Guardians squad that ranks just 24th in offensive production this season.

As for the Guardians’ bullpen, they rank 4th in MLB power rankings, providing a significant advantage if they can keep the game close. Given the Guardians' moneyline of -120, betting markets seem to suggest a tightly contested game. With crucial implications for both teams' standing, this matchup promises to be a must-watch for baseball fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With 7 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Andrew Abbott will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gabriel Arias has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 97.1-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 55 games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+10.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 53% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.81, Cleveland Guardians 4.62

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Slade Cecconi - Guardians

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.