Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Picks 4/14/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Mike Soroka - White Sox
• Run Line: Reds -1.5 -110, White Sox 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Reds -160, White Sox 140
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 60%
• Chicago White Sox - 40%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 55.98%
• Chicago White Sox - 44.02%

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds are set to face off against the Chicago White Sox in an interleague matchup on April 14, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox will be the home team for this game.

Mike Soroka is expected to start for the White Sox. He is a right-handed pitcher who has had a rough start to the season, with an ERA of 6.14. However, his 5.21 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may improve going forward.

In terms of offense, the Reds have been performing better than the White Sox. The Reds rank higher in various offensive categories such as team batting average and home runs. In fact, the Reds have the #1 ranking in stolen bases in the MLB, which could pose a challenge for Soroka, who is a low-strikeout pitcher.

On the other hand, the White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking near the bottom of the league in several categories. They have the #28 ranking in MLB for overall offense, which could work in Ashcraft's favor, as he is a low-walk pitcher facing a team that doesn't draw many walks.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Graham Ashcraft is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #2 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Elly De La Cruz has been hot lately, hitting 4 homers in the last 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Mike Soroka in the 16th percentile among all SPs in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme groundball bats like Robbie Grossman tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Graham Ashcraft.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Lenyn Sosa has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Reds vs White Sox Prediction: Reds 5.18 - White Sox 4.31

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