Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Picks 4/13/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
• Run Line: Reds -1.5 135, White Sox 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Reds -130, White Sox 110
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 54%
• Chicago White Sox - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 55.36%
• Chicago White Sox - 44.64%

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago White Sox are set to face off in an interleague matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field on April 13, 2024. The White Sox will be the home team for this game. Both teams are coming off a game where they squared off against each other, with the Reds emerging as the dominant team, winning the previous game by a score of 11-1.

The White Sox are having a tough season, currently holding a 2-11 record, while the Reds boast a more impressive 7-6 record. On paper, the Reds seem to have an advantage, ranking higher in team offense compared to the struggling White Sox. The Reds offense holds a top 10 ranking in MLB, while the White Sox offense is currently ranked near the bottom.

The pitching matchup for this game features left-handed pitchers, Garrett Crochet for the White Sox and Nick Lodolo for the Reds. Crochet has been pitching well this season, with a solid ERA of 2.00. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is considered the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB. Lodolo, on the other hand, is ranked 54th. Both pitchers project to allow a similar number of earned runs today, but Crochet is projected to have a higher strikeout rate.

In their last games, the White Sox were considered big underdogs, while the Reds were the favorites. The odds for today's game suggest it will be a close matchup, with the White Sox being the slight underdogs at +110 and the Reds the favorites at -130. THE BAT X projects the Reds as the favorites with a projected win probability of 55%, while the White Sox are projected to have a win probability of 45%.

Considering the Reds' stronger offense and their previous victory over the White Sox, they enter this game with a slight advantage. However, the White Sox will look to bounce back and overcome their struggles to secure a win in front of their home crowd. It's expected to be a tightly contested game, and fans can anticipate an exciting interleague matchup between these two teams.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Nick Lodolo in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 7th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Over his last 3 outings, Garrett Crochet has recorded a staggering 21 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Kevin Pillar is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Martin Maldonado, Zach Remillard, Korey Lee, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Reds vs White Sox Prediction: Reds 4.45 - White Sox 3.75

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