Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Rhett Lowder - Reds
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are set to clash on September 28, 2024, at Wrigley Field, in the second game of their National League Central series. With the Cubs holding an 82-78 record, they are having an average season, while the Reds, at 76-84, are experiencing a below-average campaign.

The Cubs are projected to start right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who has had a challenging season with a 6.28 ERA and a 4-12 win/loss record. However, his xFIP of 4.54 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Hendricks is expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs on average, which is a positive projection considering his season struggles.

On the mound for the Reds is right-hander Rhett Lowder, whose 1.40 ERA indicates an excellent season. However, his xFIP of 4.17 suggests he's been fortunate and might not sustain his current level of performance. Lowder is projected to pitch just 4.8 innings, with an average of 2.1 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 13th in MLB, with notable strengths in drawing walks, ranking 6th in that category. This patience at the plate could exploit Lowder's high walk rate of 10.3%. Meanwhile, the Reds rank 19th offensively, struggling with a 26th-ranked team batting average but excelling in stolen bases, ranking 3rd.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 56% chance of victory, slightly above their implied win probability of 54%. This suggests that the Cubs might have a slight edge in this matchup, especially if Hendricks can capitalize on his potential for better luck on the mound and the Cubs' offense can take advantage of Lowder's control issues.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to the average starter, Rhett Lowder has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -11.6 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (52.2% vs. 44.7% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Seiya Suzuki has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .281 rate is quite a bit higher than his .240 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games at home (+16.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 127 games (+11.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.24 vs Chicago Cubs 3.54

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