Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds gear up for their September 27 clash at Wrigley Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Cubs, sitting at 81-78, are having an average season. Meanwhile, the Reds, at 76-83, are struggling to finish strong in a below-average season. This matchup marks the first game of the series between these two division rivals.

Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Cubs, boasting a solid 11-8 record and a stellar 3.41 ERA, though his 4.12 xFIP suggests he's benefited from some luck this season. Taillon's performance has been mixed, as he's projected to allow a subpar number of hits (4.6) and walks (1.2) today. On the other side, Nick Martinez will start for the Reds. Martinez, with a 10-6 record and an impressive 3.22 ERA, has been a bright spot for the Reds. However, his 3.89 xFIP indicates some fortune in his performance as well. Both pitchers project to strike out 4.8 batters on average, which is below-average.

Offensively, the Cubs hold the edge, ranking 13th overall in MLB, while the Reds sit at 17th. Chicago's offense has been buoyed by the recent hot streak of Nico Hoerner, who has a 0.389 batting average and a 1.254 OPS over the last week. The Reds' Elly De La Cruz has been their standout performer, with a notable 25 home runs and 65 stolen bases this season.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Cubs with a 59% win probability, slightly higher than the implied odds. With both teams coming off losses, the Cubs' better overall form and home-field advantage make them the favorites in this low-scoring affair, with a game total set at just 6.5 runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (59.3% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Chicago's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Spencer Steer, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 5th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.3-mph drop off from last year's 93-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kevin Alcantara, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games at home (+13.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 148 games (+10.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 13 games (+2.70 Units / 21% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.07 vs Chicago Cubs 3.29

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