Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 5/31/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field on May 31, 2025, in a matchup that carries significance as both teams vie for crucial victories within the National League Central. The Cubs, boasting an impressive 35-22 record, sit atop the division, while the Reds hover around .500 with a 29-29 mark, reflecting an average season thus far. It’s worth noting that the Cubs' offense is performing at an elite level, ranking 3rd in MLB, while the Reds are positioned at 12th.

In their last encounter on May 30, the Reds triumphed over the Cubs with a decisive 6-2 victory, serving as a reminder of the competitive nature of this series. On the mound, Cubs' right-hander Ben Brown is looking to bounce back after a rough outing in his previous start, where he allowed 8 earned runs over just 4 innings. Despite a high 6.39 ERA, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his solid 3.30 xFIP. Brown's ability to generate strikeouts could be pivotal against a Reds offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts.

Opposing him will be lefty Nick Lodolo, who brings a more favorable 3.39 ERA to the mound. Although his xFIP of 3.90 suggests he may not continue this strong performance, Lodolo's ability to limit walks (4.5 BB%) plays well against a Cubs offense that leads the league in walks drawn. The projections indicate that this game may play in favor of the Cubs, who are -165 favorites, with an implied team total of 4.16 runs. As this pivotal matchup unfolds, expect the Cubs to leverage their high-scoring offense against a Reds team still looking to find its rhythm.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Nick Lodolo (45% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Chicago's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Drew Pomeranz has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 9 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, Carson Kelly has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.4 mph compared to last year's 91.4 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

It may be wise to expect worse results for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 54 games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+10.70 Units / 107% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.26, Chicago Cubs 3.75

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.