Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 8/5/2025
The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will face off on Tuesday night at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The Cubs are looking to catch up to the Milwaukee Brewers in the race for the NL Central title. They are favored against Cincinnati tonight with one of their best arms on the mound. Keep reading to get a full breakdown of this contest, including my Reds vs Cubs prediction.
Our Reds vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Cubs -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs |
| Date & Time | August 5, 2025, 8:05 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Zack Littell (Reds) vs. Shota Imanaga (Cubs) |
| Stadium | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Broadcast | TBS |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga has been a reliable arm for the Cubs. He is 8-4 and has a 3.25 ERA for the season. Zack Littell was acquired by the Reds from the Tampa Bay Rays. Littell has struggled with consistency throughout the year and that could be a factor in this matchup.
Bullpen Matchup: The Cubs have a slightly better bullpen ERA this season. But it was the Reds bullpen that won the bullpen matchup on Monday night. Cincinnati’s bullpen helped hold the Cubs to two runs yesterday and they will look for a repeat performance tonight.
Team Momentum: The Cubs have won three of their last five games but they did lose the series opener against the Reds on Monday. Cincinnati is also 3-2 over their last five games and will look for their second win in a row tonight.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Shota Imanaga | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
| Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- The Cubs lead the season series with the Reds 4-3 this year.
- These teams are tied 2-2 in games held at Wrigley Field in 2025.
- Chicago is 35-21 at home this season.
- Cincinnati is 26-28 on the road this year.
Reds vs Cubs Model Projection
Projected Score: Cubs 5 – Reds 3
Win Probability: Cubs 65% | Reds 35%
Final Thoughts
I am going to lay the runline with the Chicago Cubs in this NL Central matchup. Chicago needs to keep winning to keep up with the Brewers in the standings. Imanaga gives Chicago a substantial advantage in the starting pitching department and that should allow the Cubs to create enough separation to cover the runline here.
