Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 8/4/2025
The Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field on Monday night in NL Central competition. The Cubs come into this series in second place in the NL Central standings and they will look to get a key victory against a rival here. Before the first pitch is thrown at Wrigley, continue reading to get my Reds vs Cubs prediction.
Our Reds vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Under 8 runs
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs |
| Date & Time | August 4, 2025, 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Nick Lodolo vs. Michael Soroka |
| Stadium | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Broadcast | MARQ and FDSOH |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: The Cubs have recently added Mike Soroka to their roster and he is expected to start this game. Soroka hasn’t been all that impressive this season. He is 3-8 and has a 4.87 ERA. Soroka will hope that a change of scenery helps him moving forward. Nick Lodolo of the Reds will oppose Soroka. Lodolo has been very good this year. He is 8-6 and has a 3.09 ERA.
- Key Players: Cincinnati will need Elly De La Cruz to produce if they want to win this game. De La Cruz is leading the Reds in batting average, home runs, and RBI in 2025. Chicago’s Seiya Suzuki leads the Cubs with 82 RBI and he will look to move closer to triple-digits in this game.
Team Momentum: The Cubs have won three of their last four games and took two out of three from the Orioles over the weekend. The Reds have dropped two of their last three games against the Atlanta Braves. They most recently lost the MLB Speedway Classic 4-2 in Bristol, TN.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Seiya Suzuki | RBIs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
Chicago leads the season series over the Reds 4-2.
Chicago has won two straight games over the Reds and are 2-1 over Cincinnati at home.
Cincinnati is 25-28 on the road this season. Chicago is 35-20 at home in 2025.
The Cubs have gone over the total in 54.4% of their games. That is the fifth-highest percentage in baseball.
Reds vs Cubs Model Projection
Projected Score: Cubs 4 – Reds 3
Win Probability: Cubs 54% | Reds 46%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for a low-scoring game in Chicago on Monday night. Nick Lodolo is more than capable of shutting down the lineup of the Cubs. And I think we could see better from Soroka as he gets used to life with a much better team than he was on in Washington. Expect this game to stay under the total of eight runs.
