Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 7/1/2025

The Cincinnati Reds (44–41) visit Fenway Park to face the Boston Red Sox (42–44) this evening, July 1, 2025. With both squads within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues, the stakes are high. Boston rebounded from a recent slide with a 13–6 rout in Game 1, while the Reds look to stabilize after an alternating pattern of wins and losses. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET and you can keep reading to get my Reds vs Red Sox prediction for this contest.

Our Reds vs Red Sox Pick

Pick: Reds moneyline

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025 – 7:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Brady Singer vs Richard Fitts
• Stadium: Fenway Park
• Broadcast: NESN, FDSOH

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Brady Singer has delivered seven quality starts in his 16 outings, but the Reds have struggled to win games he has started, as Singer needs to tighten up his 4.31 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
• Richard Fitts is still seeking his first win (0–3) and entered today with a 4.68 ERA, including 4 runs in 4 innings after returning from the minors.

Bullpen usage

Boston’s arms have yielded a 4.01 staff ERA with a 1.33 WHIP, suggesting leaky late innings. Cincinnati’s bullpen is dealing with multiple injuries, thinning its depth, and requiring heavier usage from important arms in late innings.

Recent team streaks

• Boston comes into the night after a dominant blowout, but they were 2–7 over their prior nine and dropped three straight series.
• The Reds have alternated wins and losses over the last six games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Red Sox are 25–24 as favorites of –112 or better.
• Reds are 24–23 as ML underdogs this season. In Singer’s starts, they are 10–6 ATS and 7–3 as ML underdogs.
• Both clubs have split their H2H season series so far.
• The Over/Under has gone OVER in 6 of Boston’s last 10 games.

Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox Model Projection

Score Projection: Reds 5 – Red Sox 4

Win Probability: Reds 52%, Red Sox 48%

Final Thoughts

Expect a closely contested game, unlike what we saw on Monday night. Singer’s control should tilt the game slightly in the Reds’ favor, especially while Fitts remains winless. The Reds moneyline offers better value as far as I’m concerned in what is basically a pick ’em game. Play the Reds ML, as I’m confident in their ability to regain momentum tonight.