Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 6/30/2025

On June 30, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Cincinnati Reds at Fenway Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Red Sox are currently having a challenging season with a record of 41-44, while the Reds sit above .500 at 44-40. The stakes are high, as this series opener gives both teams a chance to gain momentum, especially after the Reds recently completed a strong series against the San Diego Padres.

Garrett Crochet, projected to start for the Red Sox, has been a standout pitcher this season, ranking as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He boasts an impressive 7-4 record and a stellar ERA of 2.06 over 17 starts. While Crochet projects to pitch 6.0 innings and allow just 2.1 earned runs today, his high strikeout capability—averaging 7.5 strikeouts per game—could be crucial against a Reds offense that ranks 13th in MLB.

On the other hand, Chase Burns will take the mound for Cincinnati. Though he has only started one game this season, his 5.40 ERA raises concerns. Burns is a high-strikeout pitcher, but he faces a Red Sox lineup that has the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB, which may work in his favor. However, projections suggest he may struggle, pitching just 4.9 innings and allowing around 2.5 earned runs.

From an offensive perspective, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB, with a strong showing in home runs and a respectable batting average. In contrast, the Reds’ offense ranks 13th and 16th in batting average, making this matchup a potential advantage for Boston, especially with their elite bullpen ranked 8th overall. As the Red Sox look to capitalize on their home field advantage, they are favored with a moneyline of -185, indicating strong confidence in their ability to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Chase Burns was on point in his previous GS and put up 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Santiago Espinal is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Rece Hinds).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 8.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Marcelo Mayer has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.6-mph to 95.5-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.30 Units / 35% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.87, Boston Red Sox 4.85

• Date: June 30, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chase Burns - Reds
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

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