Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 4/20/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on April 20, 2025, both teams are looking to shake off their below-average starts to the season. The Orioles currently sit at 9-11, while the Reds hold a record of 10-11. In their most recent outing, the Orioles emerged victorious against the Reds, winning 9-5 on April 19, which could provide a momentum boost heading into this matchup.

Charlie Morton will take the mound for Baltimore, searching for his first win of the season after starting the year with a 0-4 record and a troubling ERA of 8.84. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest that he may have been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.98 xFIP indicating he could perform better moving forward. Morton is projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings and strike out around 6.6 batters, but he is also expected to allow 2.5 earned runs and 4.6 hits, which could be costly against a Reds lineup that has been underwhelming.

On the other side, Graham Ashcraft is expected to start for Cincinnati. He brings an impressive ERA of 0.00 this season, but his underlying numbers suggest he might not be able to maintain that level of performance, as his xFIP sits at 3.28. Ashcraft's projections indicate he may struggle to go deep into games, with an average of just 3 innings pitched projected today.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 8th in MLB in team home runs, showcasing their power potential, while the Reds’ offense struggles, ranking 23rd overall. With the Orioles favored at -160 odds and an implied team total of 5.23 runs, they’ll be looking to capitalize on Ashcraft’s control issues and leverage their power advantage to secure another win.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among every team on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Wynns, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Charlie Morton is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 92.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.3% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles grades them out as the #3 offense in the game since the start of last season by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+0.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.25 Units / 45% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.25, Baltimore Orioles 4.89

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles

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