Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/9/2024

• Date: September 9, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 9, 2024, both teams are looking to gain an edge in their respective standings. The Braves currently hold a record of 78-65, positioning them well for a potential playoff run. Meanwhile, the Reds sit at 69-75, indicating a below-average season without serious postseason aspirations.

In their last outing, the Braves won a tight game against the Toronto Blue Jays, showcasing their resilience. On the mound, Atlanta will rely on Charlie Morton, who has had an average season but is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings today while allowing 2.7 earned runs. Despite his 4.24 ERA, Morton’s experience could prove vital, especially against a Reds lineup that ranks 27th in team batting average and struggles to find consistent offensive rhythm.

Cincinnati counters with Nick Martinez, who has also been average with a 3.67 ERA. However, he has faced challenges, allowing 5.5 hits per game and striking out only 4.4 batters on average. This matchup might favor the Braves, as Martinez is a low-walk pitcher facing a Braves offense that ranks 5th in the league for fewest walks taken.

The Braves’ offense has been bolstered by Eli White, who has performed well in recent games, hitting .667 with an OPS of 1.467 over the last week. In contrast, Ty France of the Reds has been a bright spot, but the team has struggled to keep pace offensively.

With the Braves being favored at -160 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.70 runs, this game presents a solid opportunity for Atlanta to capitalize on their home advantage and the Reds’ offensive inconsistencies. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup that could hinge on the effectiveness of the starting pitchers.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez was in good form in his last outing and put up 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Tyler Stephenson has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph dropping to 81.3-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Spencer Steer is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.3% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Charlie Morton has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Adam Duvall is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#2-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Compared to their .328 overall projected rate, the .317 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 120 games (+30.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 105 games (+8.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+16.10 Units / 34% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.61 vs Atlanta Braves 5.01

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