Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/22/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Cincinnati Reds on July 22, 2024, at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Braves have had a solid season with a 54-44 record, while the Reds have struggled with a 47-53 mark. This game is the first in the series between these two teams.

On the mound, Atlanta will start Reynaldo Lopez, who has been impressive this season with a 7-3 record and an excellent 1.88 ERA. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate and could regress. Lopez is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters. Despite his strong ERA, his peripherals indicate some potential vulnerabilities.

Cincinnati counters with Hunter Greene, who has also had a solid year with a 6-4 record and a 3.34 ERA. Greene's 4.18 xFIP similarly suggests some luck, but he has been more consistent overall. He is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 6.9 batters. Both pitchers have shown the ability to miss bats, but their high walk rates could be a concern.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, with notable power, ranking 10th in home runs. However, their impatience at the plate could play into Greene's hands, as they rank 5th in least walks. On the other side, the Reds' offense has been average, ranking 17th overall, but they lead the league in stolen bases, which could put pressure on Lopez and the Braves' defense.

In the bullpen, the Braves hold a significant advantage, ranked 7th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Reds' bullpen struggles at 25th. This disparity could be crucial in a close game.

The Braves are favored with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of winning. Given their better record, home-field advantage, and stronger bullpen, Atlanta appears well-positioned to secure the victory against Cincinnati.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Atlanta (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rece Hinds, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez's high usage percentage of his fastball (57% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jarred Kelenic has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 81 games (+26.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 46 away games (+7.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.28 vs Atlanta Braves 4.68

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