Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 7/23/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The July 23, 2024 matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park promises to be an intriguing one. This National League contest is the second game of the series, with the Braves holding home-field advantage. Atlanta is having an above-average season with a record of 54-45, while Cincinnati is struggling at 48-53.

The Braves are projected to start Chris Sale, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked #5 in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sale has been stellar this season, boasting a 13-3 Win/Loss record, a 2.70 ERA, and a high strikeout rate of 32.4%. He is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 7.9 batters on average. Sale faces a Reds offense that ranks 5th in most strikeouts, giving him a potential edge.

On the other side, the Reds are projected to start Nick Martinez, a right-handed pitcher who has been unlucky this year according to his peripheral stats. Despite a 3.88 ERA, his xERA of 3.17 and FIP of 3.15 suggest he is likely to perform better going forward. Martinez has a 3-5 record and has made 28 appearances out of the bullpen. He is expected to pitch 3.8 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 3.3 batters on average.

Offensively, the Braves have a slight edge. Their lineup ranks 13th in overall talent, 9th in home runs, but has struggled with stolen bases, ranking 27th. Marcell Ozuna has been on fire over the last week, hitting .500 with 2 home runs and a 1.491 OPS in 4 games. Meanwhile, the Reds are 18th in overall offensive talent but lead MLB in stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz has been their standout hitter recently, batting .313 with 3 stolen bases and a .984 OPS over the last week.

The Braves' bullpen, ranked 7th, is a strong unit, whereas the Reds' bullpen is a weak spot, ranked 26th. This disparity could be crucial in the later innings. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are favored with a 64% win probability, higher than the betting market's implied 68%. Meanwhile, the Reds have a 36% win probability, suggesting potential value for bettors willing to take a chance on the underdog.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the weakest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Austin Slater is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Rece Hinds, Stuart Fairchild).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to average, Chris Sale has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.8 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, Marcell Ozuna has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99 mph compared to last year's 96.5 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 80 games (+27.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 84 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.96 vs Atlanta Braves 4.82

Get daily MLB picks here.