Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals Pick For 7/20/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals will host the Cincinnati Reds in the second game of their series at Nationals Park on July 20, 2024. Both teams are experiencing below-average seasons, with the Nationals holding a 45-53 record and the Reds slightly better at 47-51. In last night's series opener, the Nationals fell short, adding another loss to their challenging season.

Washington will send MacKenzie Gore to the mound, who holds a 6-8 record this season with a 4.01 ERA. Despite this, Gore's 3.07 FIP suggests he's been unlucky and could see improvement. He's a high-strikeout pitcher (26.7 K%) and will face a Reds lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Gore to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs. However, his projections also suggest he'll struggle with control, allowing 4.6 hits and 2.0 walks.

The Reds will counter with Nick Lodolo, who has been effective this season with an 8-3 record and a 3.33 ERA. However, his 3.93 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate and could regress. Lodolo is projected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs. Despite his solid ERA, he also projects to struggle with control, allowing 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 26th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, but fare better in team batting average (19th) and stolen bases (3rd). Their power numbers are lacking, ranking 29th in home runs. In contrast, the Reds' offense ranks 16th, with strengths in home runs (14th) and stolen bases (1st), although they struggle with batting average (26th).

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an average offensive output from both teams. Betting markets give both teams an implied win probability of 50%, indicating a tight contest. The Nationals' bullpen woes (ranked 29th) could be a deciding factor, especially if the game is close late.

Given these matchups, the slight edge goes to the Reds, particularly if Lodolo can continue his strong season and the Nationals continue to struggle both offensively and in the bullpen. However, Gore's potential for a bounce-back performance makes this a compelling game to watch.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Lodolo has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.7% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Spencer Steer's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 79.2-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild, Rece Hinds).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's 95.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.4-mph increase from last season's 94.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Harold Ramirez has been unlucky this year, compiling a .260 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .047 gap.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 41 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.31 vs Washington Nationals 4.05

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.