Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Cincinnati Reds on August 21, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup as both teams are currently struggling this season. The Blue Jays sit at 59-67, while the Reds are slightly better at 61-65, both well below the playoff picture. This game marks the third in their series, with the Blue Jays coming off of a win in Tuesday's matchup between these teams.

Yariel Rodriguez is projected to take the mound for the Blue Jays, bringing a 1-5 record and a respectable ERA of 3.86 this season. However, his 4.36 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Rodriguez is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings today, allowing roughly 2.1 earned runs. His performance will be critical, especially considering the Blue Jays' offense ranks 20th in MLB, struggling to find consistency throughout the season.

On the other side, Nick Martinez, who has a better record of 6-6 and an impressive ERA of 3.25, is expected to start for the Reds. Martinez's 39% flyball rate may actually play to his advantage against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 27th in home runs. Yet, both teams have underwhelming bullpens, with the Blue Jays ranked 21st and the Reds at 25th in MLB.

Betting markets have set the Game Total at 8.5 runs, indicating an expectation for a close contest. With both teams averaging 4.25 runs based on the current odds, this matchup is expected to be tightly contested, and the Blue Jays may have a slight edge given Rodriguez's potential to outperform expectations against a Reds offense that sits in the middle of the pack overall.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Martinez must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 61% of the time, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jake Fraley's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 83.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 71.8-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 16° mark is among the highest in baseball this year (#2 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all SPs, Yariel Rodriguez's fastball spin rate of 2393 rpm ranks in the 80th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

As it relates to his batting average, George Springer has suffered from bad luck this year. His .220 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .276.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 59 games (+19.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 52 away games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.80 Units / 126% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.24 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.41

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