Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Julian Aguiar - Reds
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on August 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in below-average standings, with the Blue Jays at 58-66 and the Reds at 60-64. This game marks the beginning of a new series, and both teams are looking to turn their seasons around.

In their last outing, the Blue Jays secured a tight 1-0 victory over the Cubs, thanks to a stellar performance from Kevin Gausman, who pitched seven innings of shutout baseball. On the other hand, the Reds faced a tough loss against the Royals, falling 8-1, which adds to their struggles as they attempt to find consistency.

Gausman, projected to start for Toronto, has had an average season with an 11-8 record and a 4.20 ERA. However, his advanced metrics indicate that he may have been somewhat fortunate, as revealed by his 4.88 xERA. Despite this, he has shown the ability to limit earned runs, projecting to allow only 2.5 today, which bodes well against a Reds offense that ranks 27th in team batting average.

Conversely, Julian Aguiar, the Reds' projected starter, is struggling significantly this season and is regarded as one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He has been projected to pitch 4.8 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, which could prove problematic against a Blue Jays lineup that, while ranked 21st in offense, is still favored to score more than 4 runs according to the projections.

With Toronto positioned as the betting favorite at -165 and an implied team total of 4.44 runs, they will aim to capitalize on the Reds' pitching difficulties to secure another win and build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to the average starter, Julian Aguiar has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -10.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.0) provides evidence that T.J. Friedl has experienced some positive variance this year with his 28.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Positioned highest in the league this year, Cincinnati Reds batters collectively have posted a 16.1° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced metric to measure power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (59.1 compared to 50.8% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 51 games (+18.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.1 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.85

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