Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 7/28/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Shawn Armstrong - Rays

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds gear up for the third game of their series on July 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions this season. The Rays, with a 53-52 record, are having an average season and are still in the hunt for a potential playoff spot. On the other hand, the Reds, sitting at 50-54, are having a below-average season and are struggling to find consistency.

The pitching matchup features Shawn Armstrong for the Rays and Hunter Greene for the Reds. Armstrong typically pitches in short stints out of the bullpen and will serve as the opener in this matchup. He has a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.64, though his record is not nearly as important as his high ERA going into this matchup.

Hunter Greene, the Reds' right-handed starter, has been solid this season with a 3.14 ERA, ranking as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.17 xFIP suggests he has been a bit fortunate and could regress. Greene is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, providing the Reds with a more stable starting presence.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled, ranking 21st in MLB in overall offense, 23rd in batting average, and 26th in home runs. Their one bright spot has been their ability to steal bases, ranking 4th in MLB. Brandon Lowe has been the standout performer over the last week, hitting .318 with a 1.217 OPS, 2 home runs, and 6 RBIs in seven games.

The Reds' offense ranks 16th overall but has also had difficulties with consistency, particularly in batting average where they rank 27th. They do, however, rank 13th in home runs and lead MLB in stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz has been their best hitter over the last week, posting a .316 batting average and a 1.041 OPS, along with 4 stolen bases in five games.

The Rays' bullpen, ranked 12th in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, will need to be sharp to support Armstrong. Meanwhile, the Reds' bullpen has been a weak spot, ranking 28th, which could be a decisive factor late in the game.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Reds having a slight edge at -130 moneyline odds, implying a 54% win probability. The Rays' moneyline sits at +110 with a 46% implied win probability. Given Hunter Greene's strong season and the Reds' edge in starting pitching, Cincinnati looks to have a slight advantage, but the Rays' bullpen and base-running prowess could keep it competitive.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among all SPs, Hunter Greene's fastball velocity of 97.1 mph ranks in the 98th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jonathan India has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 79.8-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays batters have struggled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking worst in the game.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 61 of their last 100 games (+18.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+7.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Hunter Greene has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 44% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.95 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.84

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