Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction For 6/30/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds on June 30, 2024, at Busch Stadium in a National League Central showdown. Both teams are having underwhelming seasons, with the Cardinals sitting at 42-40, and the Reds at 39-44. This game marks the fourth in their current series, adding an extra layer of familiarity and rivalry.

On the mound, the Cardinals will start Lance Lynn, who has been solid yet unspectacular this season. Lynn, a right-hander, holds a 3-3 record with a 3.86 ERA over 16 starts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks him as the 104th best starting pitcher, reflecting his average status. Lynn projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.9 batters, but struggling with control and hits, allowing 1.7 walks and 4.9 hits per start.

Opposing him will be Hunter Greene for the Reds. Greene has been more impressive, boasting a 5-3 record and a 3.79 ERA. Ranked 57th among starting pitchers, Greene's 3.28 xERA suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and might be due for even better performances. Projections show Greene pitching 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 6.6 batters, though he also faces control issues with 2.1 walks and 4.7 hits allowed per game.

Offensively, the Cardinals are struggling, ranking 21st in overall performance and 22nd in home runs. Their batting average and stolen bases rank 17th, indicating some areas of mediocrity. Michael Siani has been a bright spot recently, hitting .533 with a 1.333 OPS over the last week.

The Reds' offense hasn't fared much better, ranking 20th overall and 24th in batting average. However, their power has been slightly better, with a 19th ranking in home runs, and they've excelled in baserunning, leading the league in stolen bases. Jonathan India has been on fire, batting .577 with a 1.607 OPS over the last seven games.

The bullpens present a stark contrast. The Cardinals' bullpen is ranked 2nd best, while the Reds' bullpen languishes at 26th. This discrepancy could be a deciding factor in a tight game, as betting markets suggest with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

With both teams having equal moneylines at -110, this game is projected to be a close contest. The Cardinals' superior bullpen and home-field advantage might give them the edge they need to secure a win in this crucial divisional matchup.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Out of all starters, Hunter Greene's fastball velocity of 97.1 mph is in the 99th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Luke Maile, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Lance Lynn is expected to rack up an average of 5.8 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Paul Goldschmidt has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 96.4-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games (+9.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.98 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.21

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