Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 6/17/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 17, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carson Spiers - Reds
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

With identical records of 34-37, both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are enduring below-average seasons as they prepare to face off on June 17, 2024, at PNC Park. This National League Central matchup promises intrigue, particularly on the mound where the Pirates are projected to start Paul Skenes against the Reds' Carson Spiers.

The Pirates hold a slight advantage in this series opener, backed by ace Paul Skenes, who is ranked as the 6th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Skenes has been stellar this season, posting a 2.43 ERA, a 3-0 record, and averaging 7.0 strikeouts per game. Though projections suggest he may allow 4.6 hits and 1.6 walks on average today, these numbers could still position Pittsburgh favorably, especially against a struggling Reds lineup.

Carson Spiers, on the other hand, faces a tall order. Despite a commendable 2.33 ERA, his underlying metrics tell a different story. His 4.34 xFIP indicates he's been relatively lucky so far. Add to this his low strikeout rate (18.8 K%) and trouble with controlling hits and walks (5.0 hits and 1.6 walks projected today), and it's clear Spiers could face challenges against even a middling Pirates offense.

The Pirates' bats haven't done them many favors this season, ranking 27th in overall offense. However, they have a slight edge over the Reds in terms of bullpen quality (#11 to Cincinnati's #21), which might prove pivotal in a close contest. The Pirates' recent standout performer, Andrew McCutchen, has been hot over the last week with a .300 average and a .983 OPS, adding some punch to an otherwise lackluster lineup.

Conversely, the Reds boast the league’s top ranking in stolen bases, a potential game-changer given Pittsburgh’s specific weaknesses. Jeimer Candelario has been on a tear for Cincinnati, posting a .450 average with 9 RBIs and 3 home runs over the past week.

A betting perspective sees the Pirates as significant favorites with a moneyline of -190, which translates to an implied win probability of 63%. While the Reds, at +165, have a much lower implied win probability of 37%, their ability to manufacture runs through aggressive base running and timely hitting could still make them a viable underdog pick.

Overall, this game pivots on the performance of the starting pitchers. Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes could extend the Pirates' edge, while Carson Spiers needs to defy projections to keep Cincinnati in contention.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Connor Joe is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 36 games (+8.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+9.10 Units / 65% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.11 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.27

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.