Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Julian Aguiar - Reds
  • Jake Woodford - Pirates

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on August 24, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for respectability in the National League Central. The Pirates sit at 61-67, while the Reds are slightly ahead at 62-67, with both clubs experiencing below-average seasons. This game is crucial as it marks the third contest in a series that has significant implications for morale and standings.

In their last outing, the Reds were dealt a setback, emphasizing the importance of this matchup. Jake Woodford is slated to start for Pittsburgh, struggling this season with an 0-5 record and a dismal ERA of 6.67. However, his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 5.02 suggests he may be due for a turnaround despite facing one of the league's high-strikeout offenses.

On the other side, Cincinnati will rely on Julian Aguiar, who has had limited success in his debut year with an ERA of 4.50. His high xFIP of 5.93 indicates potential difficulties ahead, especially against a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts.

Despite their low overall rankings, the Pirates have shown some promise lately, with Rowdy Tellez leading the offense, boasting a .294 batting average and a .922 OPS over the last week. The projections indicate a stronger performance from the Pirates, suggesting they could edge out the Reds in this closely matched contest. With Pittsburgh's bullpen rated slightly better at 17th in MLB compared to Cincinnati's 25th, this could be a pivotal factor in a game where the score is anticipated to reach a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among every team on the slate today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Will Benson has big-time power (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (35% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Woodford is a pitch-to-contact type (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Benson.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Cincinnati Reds offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jake Woodford has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Bryan Reynolds's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89.9-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 87.3-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 8.5% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #9 group of hitters in baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 97 games (+15.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 48 away games (+8.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+12.10 Units / 86% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 5.06 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.44

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