Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on August 23, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings, with records of 60-67 and 62-66, respectively. This National League Central matchup is crucial as both teams are looking to gain momentum in an otherwise disappointing season. The Pirates are projected to start Bailey Falter, while Andrew Abbott is set to take the mound for the Reds.

In their previous game, the Pirates claimed a 7-0 win over the Reds and will look for a repeat performance in front of their home crowd at PNC Park. Bailey Falter, despite being ranked as the 171st best starting pitcher in MLB, has an above-average ERA of 4.02 this season. However, his 4.62 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and he projects to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs on average. His low strikeout rate of 17.1% could work in his favor against a Reds offense that has been prone to strikeouts, ranking 5th in MLB in that category.

On the other side, Andrew Abbott brings a solid 3.72 ERA into this matchup, but his 4.91 xFIP indicates that he might also be due for some regression. Abbott's projections show he may struggle with hits and walks, allowing an average of 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks per game.

While the Pirates' offense ranks 27th in MLB, their best hitter over the last week has been Yasmani Grandal, contributing significantly with a .333 batting average and an OPS of 1.108. In contrast, the Reds hold a slightly better offensive ranking at 18th overall, but their batting average sits at a dismal 27th.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets view this matchup as a close contest. The Pirates’ current moneyline is set at -120, suggesting they have a slight edge, while the Reds are at +100. Given the projections and performance trends, this game could be pivotal for the Pirates as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (6.6) implies that Santiago Espinal has had positive variance on his side this year with his 17.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (64.5 compared to 52.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #9 club in baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games (+15.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 106 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 52% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.79 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.72

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