Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees Pick For 7/4/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees will host the Cincinnati Reds at Yankee Stadium on July 4, 2024, for the final game of their three-game interleague series. The Yankees, with a strong record of 54-34, have been impressive all season and will look to continue their winning momentum. The Reds, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency, sitting at 41-45.

Marcus Stroman will take the mound for the Yankees. Despite a solid 3.29 ERA and a strong record of 7-3 across 17 starts, Stroman's peripherals suggest he's had a bit of luck this year. With an xFIP of 4.68, regression could be on the horizon. Nonetheless, the Yankees will bank on his ability to limit runs and keep them in the game. Stroman projects to pitch approximately 5.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters on average.

Frankie Montas, who has had an up-and-down season with a 3-6 record and a 4.23 ERA, will start for the Reds. Montas has been plagued by control issues, which could be problematic against a very patient Yankees lineup that leads MLB in drawing walks. The projections aren't favorable for Montas, expecting him to allow 3.2 earned runs over 5.2 innings and only strike out 4.6 batters.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 3rd best lineup in baseball, highlighted by their prowess in hitting home runs, ranking 2nd in MLB. However, they struggle on the basepaths, ranking 28th in stolen bases. Aaron Judge has been on fire over the past week, posting a .435 batting average and an impressive 1.196 OPS. Judge's hot streak could pose significant trouble for Montas and the Reds' pitching staff.

The Reds' offense, conversely, has been lackluster, ranking 23rd in MLB. Their strength lies in base stealing, where they rank 1st. Jonathan India has been the bright spot for Cincinnati recently, recording a .318 batting average and a .969 OPS over the last seven games.

Given the Yankees' offensive firepower and Stroman's ability to limit damage, they enter the contest as heavy favorites, with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. Meanwhile, the Reds face an uphill battle as significant underdogs with a +150 moneyline and a 39% implied win probability. With the Yankees' high-powered offense and the Reds' bullpen woes, expect a high-scoring affair with a game total set at 9.0 runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Generating 14.5 outs per GS this year on average, Frankie Montas falls in the 14th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jake Fraley's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 83.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 80.4-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Marcus Stroman has utilized his non-fastballs 14.7% more often this year (60.1%) than he did last year (45.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Trent Grisham has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 16.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 54 games (+16.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.65 Units / 62% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.54 vs New York Yankees 5.56

Get daily MLB picks here.