Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Pick For 6/16/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds on June 16, 2024, at American Family Field, this National League Central matchup holds significant weight for both teams. The Brewers, sitting at 41-29, are having an excellent season and are looking to extend their lead in the division. Meanwhile, the Reds, with a 34-36 record, are hovering around .500 and aiming to gain ground.

The Brewers are projected to start Colin Rea, who has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 5-2 record and a strong 3.31 ERA. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate and might regress. Rea is ranked as the 228th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. On the other side, the Reds will counter with Frankie Montas, who has been average this year with a 3-5 record and a 4.55 ERA. Despite his average performance, Montas does have a slight edge, projecting to pitch 5.6 innings and strike out 5.2 batters.

Offensively, the Brewers have the upper hand. Their lineup ranks 4th in MLB in both overall offense and team batting average, and they excel in stealing bases, ranking 3rd. Willy Adames has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .294 with a 1.105 OPS, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs. The Reds’ offense, in contrast, ranks 17th overall and struggles with batting average, sitting at 26th. However, they lead MLB in stolen bases, adding an element of speed to their game. Jeimer Candelario has been their standout performer recently, boasting a .381 average and 1.333 OPS over the last week.

The Brewers also hold a significant advantage in the bullpen, ranked 6th compared to the Reds’ 20th. This could be a deciding factor in a game where both starting pitchers are projected to be average.

Betting markets have the Brewers as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130 and an implied win probability of 54%. The Reds are at +110, implying a 46% chance. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, expect a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to the average hurler, Frankie Montas has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.9 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea has used his slider 6.2% more often this year (16.9%) than he did last year (10.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Blake Perkins's speed has declined this season. His 30.02 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.44 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.56 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.63

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.