Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Prediction For 8/8/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: August 8, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Kyle Tyler - Marlins

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds visit LoanDepot Park on August 8, 2024, they face off against the Miami Marlins in the fourth game of their series. The Marlins are struggling through a tough season with a 43-72 record, but they did beat the Reds in their last outing on Wednesday. With the Reds at 55-59, they find themselves in a below-average position but still have a chance to improve their standing.

On the mound, the Reds will send out Hunter Greene, who has been a standout performer this year with an impressive 2.83 ERA and a solid 8-4 win/loss record. His power pitching is bolstered by a high strikeout rate, projecting 6.8 strikeouts per game against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB, showcasing their struggles at the plate. The projections indicate that Greene will pitch around 5.9 innings and allow approximately 2.5 earned runs, reflecting his effectiveness.

In contrast, the Marlins will counter with Kyle Tyler, who has had a rough go this season, holding a 5.27 ERA and a win/loss record of 0-2. Tyler's low strikeout rate and high hit projection (5.2 hits allowed per game) do not bode well against a Reds offense that ranks 16th overall but has the potential to capitalize on his weaknesses.

While the Marlins' bullpen is ranked 24th in MLB, the Reds' bullpen is even lower at 27th, suggesting that late-game scenarios could be pivotal. Given the current odds, the Marlins are seen as significant underdogs, with a low implied team total of 3.19 runs. However, if Tyler can harness his xFIP of 4.58, which suggests he may be due for better luck, Miami could find a way to keep the game competitive.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

In terms of his home runs, Santiago Espinal has experienced some positive variance this year. His 19.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Ranking highest in baseball this year, Cincinnati Reds hitters as a unit have compiled a 16.2° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable standard to evaluate power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Kyle Tyler's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (85.5% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Xavier Edwards has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+17.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+7.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 42 games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.9 vs Miami Marlins 4.05

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