Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Pick For 8/7/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds face off against the Miami Marlins on August 7, 2024, the stakes are low for both teams, with neither having serious playoff aspirations. The Marlins are struggling significantly this season, holding a record of 42-72 and ranking 29th in offense across MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds sit at 55-58, having an average campaign, yet they possess a slightly better lineup, ranking 16th in overall offensive performance.

In their previous matchup, the Reds took control, showcasing their offensive depth and capitalizing on the Marlins' weaknesses. The Marlins' pitching has been a focal point of their struggles, with Valente Bellozo projected to start. Bellozo has made three starts this year but remains winless at 0-1, and his 4.20 ERA suggests he has been unlucky, supported by a 3.15 xERA indicating potential improvement. However, he faces a challenge against the Reds' Andrew Abbott, who has shown solid form with a 3.41 ERA and a winning record of 9-8 this season.

The projections indicate that Abbott, a left-handed pitcher, may exploit the Marlins' power deficiency, as the team ranks 29th in home runs this year. This gives Abbott a significant edge, especially considering his ability to generate fly balls against a Marlins squad that struggles to convert those into long balls.

The Game Total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, which reflects the expected competitive nature of the game. The Marlins find themselves as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, and they project an average team total of 3.92 runs. With both teams looking to improve their standings, expect a hard-fought contest as they vie for a series win.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott has gone to his curveball 5.6% less often this year (11.5%) than he did last season (17.1%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Valente Bellozo’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (89 mph) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (90 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Nick Fortes has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and will be challenged by the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+17.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 away games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.73 vs Miami Marlins 4.77

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