Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Pick For 8/5/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: August 5, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds face off against the Miami Marlins on August 5, 2024, the stakes may not be high in terms of playoff contention, but both teams are looking to improve their dismal records. The Marlins sit at 42-70, while the Reds are slightly better at 53-58.

In their last outing, the Marlins shocked the Atlanta Braves with a 7-0 win despite their underwhelming offense, which ranks 29th in MLB. They have been particularly lacking in power, hitting only 85 home runs this season, the second least in the league. The Reds, on the other hand, have a better offensive ranking at 21st, bolstered by their average home run count of 13th in the league.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Roddery Munoz, who has had a tough season with a 2-5 record and an ERA of 5.45. His advanced stats indicate he may have been lucky, as his 6.14 xERA suggests a potential for further decline. Munoz is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Reds offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts, which could favor him if he can manage to induce weak contact.

Nick Martinez will take the ball for the Reds. With a solid ERA of 3.65 and an average ranking among pitchers, he appears to have the upper hand. The projections suggest he may allow around 2.1 earned runs, which could give the Reds a good chance to capitalize on the Marlins' lack of offensive firepower.

Given the Marlins' struggles this season, they come into this game as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, while the Reds are favored at -145. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair. With both teams eager to turn their seasons around, this matchup could provide some unexpected fireworks.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Martinez to throw 72 pitches in this matchup (least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Roddery Munoz has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 5.45 figure is a good deal lower than his 6.81 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+16.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 79 games (+7.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 5.13 vs Miami Marlins 4.49

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