Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 5/19/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In an exciting National League matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Cincinnati Reds on May 19, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a record of 31-17, are having a great season, while the Reds, with a record of 19-27, are struggling.

The Dodgers, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their fans. They are known for their powerful offense, ranking as the best in MLB this season. Led by their star hitter, Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers have recorded impressive numbers, including 36 runs, 32 RBIs, 13 home runs, and 11 stolen bases. Ohtani boasts a batting average of .350 and an OPS of 1.079.

On the other hand, the Reds have struggled offensively, ranking as the 25th best team in MLB. Their best hitter, Elly De La Cruz, has contributed with 35 runs, 9 home runs, and an impressive 30 stolen bases. De La Cruz holds a batting average of .264 and an OPS of .852.

In terms of pitching, the Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Landon Knack, who has a record of 1-1 this season and an impressive ERA of 2.81. However, his 4.82 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. Knack is a low-strikeout pitcher, which could work in his favor against the Reds' high-strikeout offense.

The Reds will counter with right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who has a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.27. However, his 4.07 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances. Greene is a high-flyball pitcher, which could pose a challenge against the powerful Dodgers offense, known for hitting home runs.

This game is the fourth in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Dodgers defeated the Reds 4-0, with the Dodgers being a big favorite to win. The Dodgers' bullpen, ranked 9th best in MLB, could provide additional support.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are projected to win this game with a 62% probability, while the Reds have a 38% chance of winning. The current odds favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% chance of winning, while the Reds have a moneyline of +145, implying a 40% chance of winning.

With the Dodgers' strong offense, solid pitching, and home-field advantage, they have the upper hand in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on the field. Fans can expect an exciting game at Dodger Stadium.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Freddie Freeman's quickness has fallen off this season. His 26.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.21 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup ranks as the strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games at home (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.5 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.47

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.