Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies Prediction For 6/4/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • Ty Blach - Rockies

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

In a National League matchup, the Colorado Rockies are set to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on June 4, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, with a disappointing 21-38 record this season, will be the home team, while the Reds, with a below-average 27-33 record, will be the away team.

The Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ty Blach, who has had a mixed performance this year. Blach has started five games, with a 2-2 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.15, which is slightly above average. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Blach is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. His peripheral indicators, such as SIERA and xERA, indicate that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Reds are expected to start right-handed pitcher Frankie Montas. Montas has started 10 games this year, with a 2-4 win/loss record and an average ERA of 4.60. According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, Montas is considered an average pitcher.

The Rockies offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average. However, they rank poorly in team home runs and stolen bases. The Reds offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 25th best in MLB, with an average team batting average. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Reds are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 56%. However, the Rockies have a high implied team total of 4.93 runs, indicating that they are expected to score well in this game.

In this matchup, Ty Blach, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Reds offense. This could give Blach an advantage, as his strength aligns with the Reds' weakness. Additionally, Blach's low-walk rate could neutralize the Reds' patient offense, which ranks sixth in walks in MLB.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the struggling Rockies and the below-average Reds. While the odds favor the Reds, the Rockies' offensive potential and the pitching matchup could make for an interesting game.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to the average starter, Frankie Montas has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 8.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Luke Maile, Stuart Fairchild).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ty Blach has relied on his change-up 6.2% more often this season (27.5%) than he did last year (21.3%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Since the start of last season, Sean Bouchard's 20% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 99th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+6.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 6.53 vs Colorado Rockies 5.42

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