Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox Pick & Prediction – 4/12/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
• Run Line: Reds -1.5 -110, White Sox 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Reds -170, White Sox 150
• Total (Over/Under):9 -115

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 61%
• Chicago White Sox - 39%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 57.79%
• Chicago White Sox - 42.21%

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds will face off against the Chicago White Sox on April 12, 2024, in an Interleague matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, who currently hold a disappointing 2-10 record this season, will strive to turn their fortunes around. Meanwhile, the Reds are having an average season with a 6-6 record.

The White Sox will have Chris Flexen, a right-handed pitcher, on the mound. Flexen has had a rough start to the season, with an ERA of 5.91 and a win/loss record of 0-2. However, his 4.92 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Flexen is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.0 batters, and giving up 5.1 hits and 2.0 walks per game.

On the other side, the Reds will start Andrew Abbott, a left-handed pitcher. Abbott has shown promise this season, with an ERA of 3.48 and a win/loss record of 0-1. However, his 5.21 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse in future games. Abbott is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.5 batters, and giving up 4.6 hits and 1.9 walks per game.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking 27th in MLB. Their team batting average and home runs rank at 22nd, while their stolen bases rank 21st. In contrast, the Reds offense has performed better, ranking 13th overall. They have a higher team batting average and home run ranking at 14th, and their stolen bases rank 1st in MLB.

The White Sox bullpen is considered the worst in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Reds bullpen ranks 23rd. This suggests that the Reds may have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

With the Reds being the away team, they hold the advantage in terms of offensive production. However, Flexen's strength as a low-strikeout pitcher may work in his favor against the Reds, who have the 5th most strikeouts in MLB. On the other hand, Flexen's high-walk rate may play into the hands of the patient Reds offense, who have the 6th most walks in MLB.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

In his last game started, Andrew Abbott turned in a great performance and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jeimer Candelario has been exhibiting poor exit velocity numbers, with an average of only 81.7-mph on his flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Chris Flexen is expected to tally an average of 15.1 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Typically, bats like Robbie Grossman who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Martin Maldonado, Paul DeJong, Korey Lee).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 143 games (+13.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 61 away games (+21.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 5.13 vs Chicago White Sox 4.12

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