Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/22/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Nastrini - White Sox
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 22, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre. As the home team, the Blue Jays will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the White Sox in their previous game. The Blue Jays have had a challenging season with a record of 21-26, while the White Sox have struggled even more with a record of 15-34.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt, who has been performing above average this season according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his nine starts, Bassitt has a win-loss record of 3-6 with an ERA of 5.03. However, his 4.23 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Bassitt is expected to pitch around 6.2 innings and allow an average of 2.4 earned runs.

On the other side, the White Sox will send right-handed pitcher Nick Nastrini to the mound. Nastrini has struggled this season with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 7.88. However, his 6.23 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and may improve in future outings. Nastrini is projected to pitch around 4.6 innings and allow an average of 3.0 earned runs.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB this season, while the White Sox offense sits at the bottom of the rankings as the 30th best. The Blue Jays have been strong in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league, but their home run and stolen base rankings are average. The White Sox, on the other hand, have struggled in all offensive categories.

With Chris Bassitt's control issues, the low-walk White Sox offense may struggle to take advantage, giving Bassitt the advantage in this matchup. However, the White Sox bullpen is ranked 27th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, which could work in favor of the Blue Jays.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays are the big betting favorites with a moneyline of -230 and an implied win probability of 68%. THE BAT X projects the Blue Jays as a massive favorite with a win probability of 70%. The Blue Jays also have a high implied team total of 5.10 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among every team on the slate today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Paul DeJong is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox projected offense projects as the weakest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to league average, Chris Bassitt has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 5.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, there has been a decline in Danny Jansen's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.12 ft/sec last year to 26.41 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in the league: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 22 away games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 39% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.53 vs Toronto Blue Jays 5.48

Get daily MLB picks here.