Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 6/22/2025

On June 22, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Blue Jays are currently sitting at 41-35, enjoying an above-average season, while the White Sox languish at 24-53, marking a dismal campaign. This game represents the third in a series where the Blue Jays are looking to assert their dominance after a strong performance in their previous outing.

Toronto's projected starter, Chris Bassitt, holds a 7-3 record with a respectable 3.75 ERA this season, ranking as the 99th best starting pitcher in MLB. While Bassitt has been average overall, he faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in offensive production and dead last in team batting average. This mismatch suggests a favorable outing for the Blue Jays' right-hander, especially given that Adrian Houser, the White Sox's starter, has struggled in his own right, with a 2-2 record and an excellent 2.15 ERA that may not be sustainable, as indicated by his elevated 4.02 xFIP.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are ranked 15th overall, with a solid 7th place in team batting average. In contrast, the White Sox offense has been underwhelming, as they sit 29th in overall ranking and have had difficulty generating runs.

With the Blue Jays projected to score an impressive 5.28 runs today, they are heavy betting favorites with a moneyline of -210. In contrast, the White Sox, facing an uphill battle, have a low implied team total of 3.72 runs and a moneyline of +180. Given the current trends and matchups, this game appears to lean heavily in favor of the Blue Jays.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Adrian Houser in the 13th percentile among all starters in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Chase Meidroth is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Toronto (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt's 90.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.9-mph decrease from last season's 92.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.09, Toronto Blue Jays 5.05

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adrian Houser - White Sox
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.