Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 6/21/2025

On June 21, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. The Blue Jays, currently sitting at 40-35 and enjoying an above-average season. In contrast, the White Sox have struggled significantly this season, with a dismal record of 24-52, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league. However, the White Sox did win the opening game of this series on Friday.

The Blue Jays are projected to start Jose Berrios, a right-handed pitcher with a 3.81 ERA this year. While his ERA appears solid, advanced stats indicate he may have been fortunate, as his 4.72 xERA suggests potential regression. Berrios has been inconsistent, holding a 2-3 record and projecting to allow 2.7 earned runs over an average of 5.6 innings pitched today. However, he faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in the league in batting average, making this a favorable matchup for him.

On the other side, the White Sox will send Aaron Civale to the mound. Civale's 4.67 ERA is considered average, but he has struggled with strikeouts, posting a low 19.5% K rate. His projections suggest he could allow 3.2 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which may not be enough against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 5th in team batting average and has shown the ability to capitalize on pitching mistakes.

Given the Blue Jays' strong bullpen, ranked 6th in the league, and their favorable matchup against a struggling White Sox offense, they are positioned as significant favorites. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game, but the Blue Jays' offensive capabilities and pitching advantage could very well lead them to a convincing victory.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In his last start, Aaron Civale allowed a monstrous 5 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Josh Rojas's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 92.2-mph figure last year has fallen off to 84.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball batters like Nathan Lukes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Aaron Civale.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 66% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.38, Toronto Blue Jays 5.52

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - White Sox
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

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