Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction & Picks 7/22/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers are set to host the Chicago White Sox at Globe Life Field on July 22, 2024, with both teams having disappointing seasons. The Rangers, sitting at 47-52, are having a below-average year, while the White Sox are struggling significantly with a 27-74 record, ranking them last in several offensive metrics.

On the mound, the Rangers will start Michael Lorenzen, a right-hander who has been serviceable this season with a 3.52 ERA, albeit with a concerning 5.00 xFIP suggesting potential regression. Lorenzen has been unlucky with walks, posting an 11.8 BB%, but he may find an advantage against the White Sox's impatient offense, which ranks 2nd last in walks. He's expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, highlighting his average performance despite his deceptive ERA.

The White Sox counter with Erick Fedde, who boasts an impressive 2.99 ERA this season. Nevertheless, his 3.85 xFIP indicates some luck has been involved. Fedde is projected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, indicating a solid, if unspectacular, outing. His strikeout potential is slightly better than Lorenzen's, projected at 4.8 compared to Lorenzen's 4.5.

Offensively, neither team is shining. The Rangers' lineup ranks 22nd in overall offense and team stolen bases, but they are middle-of-the-pack in batting average and home runs. This mediocrity might still be a step ahead of the White Sox, who rank 29th in batting average and 28th in home runs, making them one of the league's weakest offenses.

In the bullpen, the Rangers hold a slight edge, ranking 20th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the White Sox's bullpen is dead last. These factors contribute to the Rangers being favorites with a moneyline of -170, giving them a 61% implied win probability.

Given these dynamics, the Rangers appear to have the upper hand. Lorenzen's ability to exploit the White Sox's lack of patience at the plate, combined with a relatively more effective bullpen, positions Texas as the likely victor in this American League matchup. With both teams struggling this season, this game could serve as a minor morale boost for Texas as they look to capitalize on Chicago's woes.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In his last game started, Erick Fedde was on point and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Paul DeJong has a ton of pop (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (30.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen is a pitch-to-contact type (10th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Paul DeJong, Korey Lee, Luis Robert).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Generating 17.2 outs per GS this year on average, Michael Lorenzen places him the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Marcus Semien's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 87-mph seasonal average has fallen to 83.4-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 7.3% Barrel% of the Texas Rangers grades them out as the #22 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+12.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 away games (+6.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+9.40 Units / 188% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.93 vs Texas Rangers 4.71

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