Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Pick – 6/15/2025

The Texas Rangers will host the Chicago White Sox on June 15, 2025, in what is shaping up to be another crucial matchup for both teams. Currently, the Rangers are clinging to a slight edge with a record of 35-36, while the White Sox have fallen to a dismal 23-48. The Rangers are not in contention for their division title, but their form has been inconsistent, just above .500, compared to the White Sox, who are struggling significantly.

In their last outing, the Rangers faced the White Sox and secured a victory, further showcasing their ability to dominate this matchup. Tonight, the Rangers will send Kumar Rocker to the mound, who, despite his 1-4 record and an alarming ERA of 8.87 this season, has a favorable matchup ahead. The projections suggest he could allow around 2.0 earned runs today, although his 3.98 xFIP indicates he might be in line for better results than what his current numbers showcase.

On the other hand, Aaron Civale will take the mound for the White Sox. With his own struggles reflected in a 4.91 ERA and a FIP of 5.53, Civale's performance this season points to a potential decline, especially given that he is projected to allow 2.9 earned runs today. The White Sox's offensive woes are severe, ranking them dead last in MLB with a .230 batting average and 28th in home runs, making it tough to support their pitchers.

With a high implied team total of 4.85 runs, the Rangers’ offense, despite being 27th overall, still has the edge in this series. This matchup presents a significant opportunity for the Rangers to capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses, making them a strong favorite to clinch another victory.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Aaron Civale has recorded 13.2 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme groundball bats like Miguel Vargas are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Mahle.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Noda, Luis Robert Jr., Kyle Teel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Chicago White Sox have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Kumar Rocker in today's game, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Sam Haggerty has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+18.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.13, Texas Rangers 4.9

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - White Sox
  • Kumar Rocker - Rangers

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