Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Pick – 6/13/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on June 13, 2025, both teams are struggling this season, with the Rangers sitting at 33-36 and the White Sox at a dismal 23-46. The Rangers are coming off an impressive 16-3 victory in their last outing, while the White Sox narrowly lost 4-3. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and given both teams' current standings, it holds significance for each as they look to gain momentum.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Cole Winn, who has struggled this season with a projected 4.2 innings pitched and is expected to allow 2.0 earned runs on average today. His ability to limit hits is concerning, as he projects to give up 4.0 hits and 1.6 walks, which could be problematic against a White Sox lineup that, despite its struggles, still has potential for offensive outbursts.

Conversely, the White Sox will counter with Adrian Houser, who has been effective with a stellar 1.48 ERA this season. However, his 3.48 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate, and with the Rangers’ offense ranking 27th overall, this matchup could favor Houser if he can maintain control. The projections indicate that Houser will pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which is below average, but it remains to be seen how he will perform under pressure.

Given the Rangers’ offensive struggles, particularly their ranking 28th in team batting average, they may find it challenging to capitalize on Houser's potential vulnerabilities. However, they do rank 12th in home runs, which could provide a spark if they can connect early. With both bullpens ranked among the worst in MLB, late-game scoring opportunities could be pivotal. As the series begins, the Rangers may have the edge, but they will need to overcome their offensive inconsistency to secure a win.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Adrian Houser's fastball velocity has jumped 1.3 mph this season (93.4 mph) over where it was last year (92.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Texas's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Joshua Palacios, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cole Winn is projected to throw 72 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+18.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 47 games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.27, Texas Rangers 4.85

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adrian Houser - White Sox
  • Cole Winn - Rangers

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