Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 7/21/2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Chicago White Sox in the first game of a three-game series. The Rays are in contention for a playoff spot despite playing in a loaded AL East. The White Sox are nowhere near postseason contention. Can the White Sox pull off a huge upset on the road in this game? Here, I make my White Sox vs Rays prediction in an attempt to answer that question.

Our White Sox vs Rays Pick

• Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
• Confidence: 4 stars
• Bonus Bets For the Game: Use BetMGM promo code ATSBONUS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet does not win!

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

4.5/5

BetMGM Review

✓ Any Sport Odds Boosts

✓ Free to Play MLB Game

✓ Easy Parlay Builder

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: ATSBONUS

✓ Any Sport Odds Boosts

✓ Free to Play MLB Game

✓ Easy Parlay Builder

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: ATSBONUS

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
• Date & Time: Monday, July 21, 2025, at 7:35 PM EDT
• Starting Pitchers: Sean Burke vs Shane Baz
• Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
• Broadcast: FDSSUN and CHSN

Key Storylines

• Pitching form: Burke has battled inconsistency throughout the 2025 season. He is 4-8 with a 4.36 ERA on the year. Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz has been much more reliable. Baz enters this game with an 8-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. Both pitchers have allowed at least 40 walks this season and control will be key for both tonight.
• Bullpen usage: Both teams are in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA this MLB season. The bullpen battle should be mostly even in this series.
• Recent team streaks: The White Sox enter riding a three-game winning streak. They swept the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road this past weekend. The Rays took two out of three against the Baltimore Orioles in their last series.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first of six games to be played between these teams during the 2025 season.
• The Rays are 30-26 in their new home this season. The White Sox are 14-36 on the road. Three of those 14 road wins came this weekend in Pittsburgh.
• The White Sox have covered the runline in 56% of their games this season. They rank third-best in MLB in that department.

White Sox vs Rays Model Projection

Score Projection: Chicago White Sox 3 – Tampa Bay Rays 5

Win Probability: Chicago White Sox 42%, Tampa Bay Rays 58%

Final Thoughts

I think that this game is a golden opportunity for Shane Baz to get right before bigger games during the second half of this season. I expect Baz to pitch well here against a White Sox team that has been dreadful at home all year. Look for the Rays to win this game and cover the runline as they look to move closer to the top-three in the AL Wild Card hunt.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.