Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/12/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners, riding a solid 38-30 record, will host the Chicago White Sox, who are struggling with a 17-50 season, at T-Mobile Park on June 12, 2024. This American League matchup is the third game in the series, and the Mariners are fresh off a strong performance, aiming to capitalize on the White Sox's misfortunes.

Seattle's Bryce Miller, an average right-handed pitcher ranked #100 in starting pitchers by advanced stats, is set to take the mound. Miller has been consistent this season with a 5-5 record and a commendable 3.81 ERA. While his 4.34 xERA suggests he's had some luck, projections indicate that he should perform well against the White Sox, who have the worst offense in baseball. Miller is expected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing around 1.9 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters, despite a tendency to allow too many hits and walks.

On the flip side, the White Sox will counter with Jonathan Cannon, another right-handed pitcher but one of the worst in the league according to advanced stats. Cannon's 5.94 ERA tells a grim story, although his 3.34 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could improve. Projections have him pitching 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.4 batters. However, Cannon's tendency to allow too many hits and walks could spell trouble against a Mariners lineup that ranks 7th in home runs.

The Mariners' offense has been inconsistent, ranking 23rd overall and 28th in batting average. However, they’ve managed to muscle power when needed, as seen by their high home run ranking. Mitch Garver has been a standout over the last week, posting a 1.259 OPS with 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and a .286 batting average in the last five games.

Chicago's offensive woes continue, ranking dead last in both overall offense and team batting average. Paul DeJong, their best hitter over the last week, has tried to ignite some spark with 3 home runs and a .304 batting average, but it's been a one-man show.

Both bullpens are near the bottom of the league, with Seattle ranked 27th and Chicago 26th, which could lead to late-game drama. However, with Seattle being heavy favorites at -235, their 68% implied win probability aligns well with their recent form and the White Sox's struggles. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the Mariners' solid starting pitching and the White Sox's lackluster offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jonathan Cannon in the 19th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul DeJong in the 5th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Lenyn Sosa has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Cal Raleigh has big-time HR ability (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jonathan Cannon has a pitch-to-contact profile (17th percentile K%) — great news for Raleigh.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+10.20 Units / 54% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.12 vs Seattle Mariners 4.31

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.