Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants Odds & Picks – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants host the Chicago White Sox on August 21, 2024, this Interleague matchup carries significant implications for both squads. The Giants, currently sitting at 65-63, are having an average season but are still in the thick of the Wild Card race. Meanwhile, the White Sox have struggled tremendously, with a dismal record of 30-97, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league.

In their most recent encounter on August 20, the Giants emerged victorious with a solid 4-1 win, bolstered by an impressive outing from Robbie Ray. Today, Logan Webb is projected to start again, as has established himself as an elite arm, ranking as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB. His last performance was particularly notable, as he pitched a great game against the Atlanta Braves, allowing no earned runs in over seven innings of work. Webb's ability to keep the ball on the ground (57% groundball rate) bodes well against a White Sox lineup that has hit only 90 home runs this season, the 3rd least in the league.

Garrett Crochet will take the mound for the White Sox, and while he has shown flashes of brilliance, he currently holds a record of 6-9 with an ERA of 3.61. The projections indicate that the Giants are favored to score around 3.90 runs, which contrasts sharply with the White Sox's low projected total of 3.21 runs. Given the White Sox's low power output and poor offensive performance—ranking as the 30th worst overall—they'll need a flawless performance from Crochet to stay competitive.

With the Giants' bullpen being ranked 1st in MLB and their offense, although average, showing some signs of life, the odds are stacked against the White Sox. The projections suggest that the Giants should take this game, capitalizing on their pitching advantage and the White Sox's ongoing struggles.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Throwing 75.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Garrett Crochet places him the 6th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

San Francisco's #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Miguel Vargas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Chicago White Sox offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Webb has used his off-speed and breaking balls 7.8% less often this year (54.9%) than he did last season (62.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Tyler Fitzgerald has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games at home (+10.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.22 vs San Francisco Giants 3.9

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