Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Martin Perez - Padres

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Chicago White Sox on September 21, 2024, at Petco Park, these teams are heading in opposite directions. San Diego, with an 88-66 record, remains in playoff contention and is looking to solidify their postseason standing. Meanwhile, the White Sox, sitting at a dismal 36-118, have clearly had a season to forget.

The Padres come into this matchup as the clear favorites. Their offensive prowess, ranking 5th overall and having the highest team batting average in MLB, contrasts starkly with the White Sox's league-worst offensive output. San Diego's lineup, led by a hot Manny Machado, who boasts a .360 batting average and 1.146 OPS over the last week, is primed to capitalize on any opportunity against Chicago's struggling pitching staff.

Speaking of pitching, the Padres are sending Martin Perez to the mound. While Perez's 4.36 ERA is average, his underlying metrics, such as a higher 5.36 xERA, suggest some regression could be in store. However, against a White Sox team ranked last in batting average and home runs, even an average outing from Perez could suffice. On the flip side, Chris Flexen's 5.09 ERA and poor projections make for a potentially tough night against a potent Padres lineup.

San Diego's bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, adds another layer of challenge for Chicago, whose bullpen languishes near the bottom at 29th. The Padres' pitching staff is well-equipped to maintain any lead they establish.

Betting lines give San Diego a significant edge with a -270 moneyline, indicating a 71% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, projecting a 67% win probability for the Padres. With all signs pointing toward a San Diego victory, the Padres look to continue their march toward the postseason.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Generating 14.6 outs per start this year on average, Chris Flexen falls in the 15th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Zach DeLoach has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Martin Perez has utilized his sinker 5.6% less often this year (35.2%) than he did last season (40.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jackson Merrill has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone batting order of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 90 games (+13.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.84 vs San Diego Padres 5.33

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.