Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick & Preview – 8/6/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on August 6, 2024, both teams find themselves mired in disappointing seasons. The Athletics sit at 47-67, while the White Sox languish at 27-88. With neither team in contention for a playoff spot, this matchup is more about pride than postseason aspirations.

Yesterday, the Athletics faced the White Sox in a game that highlighted the struggles of Chicago, with the White Sox continuing to showcase their league-worst offense. Despite their record, the Athletics have shown some offensive firepower, ranking 4th in MLB for home runs this season, even if they sit at 17th overall in offensive rankings. Their best hitter over the last week, JJ Bleday, has been a bright spot, boasting a .412 batting average and a 1.092 OPS in his last five games.

On the mound, Ross Stripling is projected to start for the Athletics. Despite a rough season reflected in his 2-10 record and an ERA of 5.64, Stripling has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.73. He typically pitches around 5.7 innings and is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs today. However, he faces a challenge against a White Sox lineup that struggles to draw walks, ranking as the 2nd least patient offense in the league.

Jonathan Cannon is set to take the mound for the White Sox. With a 1-5 record and an ERA of 4.11, Cannon has fared better than his counterpart, though his projections suggest he might be due for a regression. The Athletics' high strikeout rate, ranking 2nd in the league, could play to Cannon's strengths as a low-strikeout pitcher.

With the Athletics favored at -175 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, they look to capitalize on their power-hitting capabilities against a struggling White Sox squad. As both teams aim to find some semblance of consistency, this matchup promises to be a battle of underperformers seeking redemption.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (60.4% this year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

When it comes to his batting average, Lenyn Sosa has had bad variance on his side this year. His .228 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .289.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Lenyn Sosa has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Among all starters, Ross Stripling's fastball velocity of 91 mph grades out in the 19th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Seth Brown, Zack Gelof, Max Schuemann, Lawrence Butler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.10 Units / 67% ROI)
• Shea Langeliers has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+14.45 Units / 131% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.13 vs Oakland Athletics 4.7

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