Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/27/2025

On May 27, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Chicago White Sox at Citi Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Mets are enjoying a strong season with a record of 33-21, while the White Sox are struggling at 17-37. In their last matchup, the Mets edged out the White Sox 2-1, continuing their upward trajectory.

The Mets will turn to Tylor Megill, who has been solid this season, boasting a 3.56 ERA and a 2.83 FIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform even better going forward. Megill's ability to strike out an average of 6.0 batters per game is a significant advantage against a White Sox lineup that ranks as the 30th best offense in MLB this season. The projections suggest he will allow just 1.9 earned runs today, which bodes well for the Mets' chances.

On the other hand, the White Sox will send Jonathan Cannon to the mound. Cannon has struggled this season, with a 3.76 ERA and a concerning 4.63 xFIP, suggesting he may be due for regression. His projections indicate he could allow 3.1 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Mets offense that ranks 10th overall in MLB.

With the Mets' strong lineup and Megill's favorable matchup against a weak White Sox offense, the Mets are positioned as heavy favorites, reflected in their moneyline of -260. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a pitching-dominated game. Overall, the Mets should capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their winning ways against a struggling opponent.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Jonathan Cannon (33.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in New York's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Joshua Palacios are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tylor Megill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 3rd-weakest projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (64.2 compared to 56.3% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.75, New York Mets 5.11

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

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