Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets Pick – 5/28/2025

The New York Mets will host the Chicago White Sox for the third game of their series on May 28, 2025, after the Mets edged out the White Sox 6-4 in their last matchup. This game holds significance as the Mets aim to solidify their strong season, currently holding a record of 34-21, while the White Sox struggle at 17-38.

The Mets are projected to send Griffin Canning to the mound, who, despite ranking as the 146th best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics, boasts a solid 2.88 ERA this season. Canning's performance has been bolstered by his excellent ability to limit earned runs, projecting to allow just 2.1 on average today. However, his 4.4 projected hits and 2.0 walks could pose challenges if the White Sox capitalize on his mistakes.

On the other side, Shane Smith will take the hill for the White Sox. Smith's ERA of 2.36 is impressive, but with a 3.99 xFIP, it appears he's benefited from some good fortune. He is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings, which could put the White Sox bullpen under pressure early in the game.

Offensively, the Mets rank as the 9th best team in MLB, while the White Sox sit at the bottom with the 30th best offense. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers favor the Mets significantly, presenting them with a high implied team total of 4.83 runs. Given the stark contrast in offensive capabilities and starting pitcher projections, New York appears well-positioned to secure another victory against Chicago.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Chicago White Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

There has been a significant improvement in Andrew Benintendi's launch angle from last year's 15.9° to 25.4° this year.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Korey Lee, the White Sox's expected catcher today, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Because groundball pitchers have a big edge over groundball hitters, Griffin Canning and his 43.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this game going up against 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Pete Alonso has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+10.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+5.55 Units / 22% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.66, New York Mets 4.57

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Smith - White Sox
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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