Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/4/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago White Sox on August 4, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an interesting matchup in the American League Central. The Twins, currently sitting at 61-48, are having a strong season and are well positioned for a playoff push. In stark contrast, the White Sox have struggled tremendously, with a dismal 27-86 record. The Twins recently played the White Sox, marking this game as the third in their series, and they will look to continue capitalizing on their opponent's woes.

Projected starters for this matchup are Simeon Woods Richard for the Twins and Chris Flexen for the White Sox. Woods Richard has shown some promise this season, posting a 3-2 record and a solid 3.74 ERA across 18 starts. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.33. Flexen, on the other hand, has struggled mightily with a 2-10 record and a 5.13 ERA over 21 starts, ranking among the worst in the league.

The Twins' offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, highlighted by their ability to hit for power, as evidenced by their 8th place rank in home runs. In contrast, the White Sox rank dead last in offensive production, sitting at 30th in the league. This discrepancy in offensive potency gives the Twins a significant edge going into this contest.

Given the current trends and projections, the Twins are positioned as substantial favorites with a high implied team total of 5.28 runs. With a matchup that favors their strong offense against a struggling pitcher like Flexen, the Twins look to take advantage and secure another victory against the White Sox.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Out of all starters, Chris Flexen's fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 11th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Miguel Vargas has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 74.8-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Miguel Vargas is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Compared to the average starter, Simeon Woods Richardson has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -6.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

When it comes to his home runs, Royce Lewis has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 44.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Minnesota Twins in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.85 Units / 47% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.19 vs Minnesota Twins 5.22

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