Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/23/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
• Run Line: White Sox 1.5 100, Twins -1.5 -120
• Money Line: White Sox 220, Twins -260
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 30%
• Minnesota Twins - 70%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago White Sox - 31.63%
• Minnesota Twins - 68.37%

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League Central matchup, the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox on April 23, 2024. The Twins, with a disappointing record of 8-13 this season, are looking to turn their season around. The White Sox are also struggling, with a record of 3-19.

Scheduled to be played at Target Field, the Twins will have the home advantage. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez, who is considered the #16 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez has shown great potential, with a 1-2 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.97 this season. His 3.26 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Lopez is expected to pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allowing 1.7 earned runs and striking out 7.0 batters per game. However, he tends to give up 4.4 hits and 1.5 walks on average, which could pose a challenge against the White Sox, who have shown impatience at the plate.

On the offensive side, the Twins have struggled this season, ranking as the #28 team in MLB. Their team batting average is #22, but they have shown power, ranking #7 in home runs. The White Sox, on the other hand, have the worst offense in MLB, ranking at the bottom in all offensive categories.

The Twins' best hitter this season has been Trevor Larnach, who has also been their standout player in the last seven games. Larnach has recorded 5 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 home run, with a batting average of .313 and an OPS of .963. The White Sox's best hitter in the last seven games has been Paul DeJong, with 5 hits, 1 home run, a .385 batting average, and a 1.192 OPS.

According to the current odds, the Twins are the favorites to win, with a moneyline of -250 and an implied win probability of 69%. The White Sox are the underdogs, with a moneyline of +215 and an implied win probability of 31%. The Twins have a high implied team total of 4.57 runs, while the White Sox have a low implied team total of 2.93 runs.

It will be an intriguing game to watch as both teams look to improve their struggling seasons. Will the Twins capitalize on their home-field advantage and the strength of their pitcher, or will the White Sox create an upset? Only time will tell.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Erick Fedde projects to strikeout 5.2 hitters in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Martin Maldonado's batting average talent is projected to be in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The weakest projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Pablo Lopez in the 94th percentile among all starters in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Christian Vazquez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (99% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 120 games (+12.15 Units / 9% ROI)

White Sox vs Twins Prediction: White Sox 2.91 - Twins 4.12

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