Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 4/24/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On April 24, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago White Sox at Target Field in what is the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins sitting at 9-15 and the White Sox at a dismal 5-19. In their previous matchup, the Twins emerged victorious, further cementing their status as the stronger side in this matchup.

The Twins will send Chris Paddack to the mound, who has had a rough start to the season with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 7.27. However, the projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.78 indicates he could improve. Paddack is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs. While he projects to strike out an average of 5.0 batters, he also faces challenges with a projected 4.9 hits and 1.5 walks allowed, both of which are concerning.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Shane Smith, who has a solid ERA of 2.82 despite his 0-1 record. However, his xFIP of 4.99 suggests he may be due for a regression. Smith's projection of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed indicates he could struggle against a Twins lineup that, while ranked 28th in offense, may take advantage of Smith's vulnerabilities.

In terms of overall team performance, the Twins' bullpen ranks 11th in MLB, compared to the White Sox's 26th, which could be critical in a close game. With the Twins favored significantly, they carry an implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the White Sox are projected for just 3.23 runs. As both teams continue to search for consistency, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Twins to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In his last game started, Shane Smith was on point and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Harrison Bader's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 85.5-mph seasonal average has fallen to 83-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Minnesota's 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the majors: #27 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 22% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.82, Minnesota Twins 4.35

• Date: April 24, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Smith - White Sox
  • Chris Paddack - Twins

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